The Backyard Remodel Chronicles, Part III, by Mike King

Two polar bears, a female and her cub, stand precariously scrunched together on a tiny raft of ice afloat upon a vast sea with no land in sight. The baby polar bear looks up timorously and asks, “Mommy, is Rick Perry real?” 

A slight perturbation in the relative calm of our backyard remodel project has been an irksome internal whisper that's been bothering Kim, reminding her that we live on the Pacific coast, and according to a large number of sources the sea level will rise alarmingly by the end of the century. “Do we really want to remodel,” she’ll say. “Shouldn’t we move to the Heights? Or maybe Boulder?” I typically try to assuage her fears with platitudes such as, “That’s a long way off,” or “So what, we don’t have kids,” or, put under tremendous wife-pressure, I’ll say, “OK, I’ll research it some more.” So, along with these diary entries, I’ll add a few vastly simplified tidbits of climate change information relating to sea level rise. 

Catching up a bit from the , here are some further entries: 

Friday, September 23

Decided to keep our neighbor’s garage wall color white. It will be painted to look new, and the fascia and window sills will be painted blue to match our planned blue trim. An adjacent lattice with some kind of creeping vine is also planned. We are all happy with the decision, and Balance has been restored to the Force. 

Sea level rise is caused primarily by two processes: thermal expansion of the ocean waters, and melting of land based ice such as glaciers and ice sheets. Regardless of whether the phenomena is anthropogenic (human caused) or not, recorded observations show that the ocean level has risen 1.8 millimeter (mm) per year from 1963 to 2003, and projections show an accelerated increase through the end of this century and beyond. 

Friday, September 30

Kim’s in Lancaster PA attending a quilting guild soiree. Here at home, workers are doing their thing: putting in gas lines to the firewall and future barbeque. Painters are furiously doing prep work. I’m upstairs in the office and there is a hugely annoying, deafening hammering going on. An impact hammer I suppose, or perhaps Optimus Prime is having an epileptic fit. I have headphones on, listening to the Dark Knight soundtrack on Spotify, and am trying to balance the checkbook. The music barely deadens the outside cacophony. 

Estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show a projected  rise of between 18 and 59 centimeters (cm) (about 7 to 23 inches) by the year 2100. This is generally considered a “conservative” estimate due to the fact that the IPCC methodology did not account for potential changes in ice sheet dynamics. A survey of recent climate change literature summarized and published by the US National Research Council in 2010 posits a more severe sea level rise by the year 2100 in the range of between 0.56 and 2.0 meters (1.8 to 6.6 feet). 

Friday, October 7

Major painting going on! Decisions are being made: chose to remove one of our two eucalyptus trees that would have kinda been in the way of the new gate in the back corner. This particular tree is nestled fairly close to the house and doesn’t provide much in the way of shade or privacy, but… dang. It’s sinful to get rid of a tree in the increasingly concrete residential landscape of the Shore. Some good news though: the painters were able to ‘unstick’ a window that had been painted shut up in K’s office since forever. Major achievement! Alas, Kim is freaked out about the house color – it looks too yellow for her. Of course, any change maddens her, but we have crossed the Rubicon on this one. I love the color, but how much is my opinion worth really? Quite a lot actually, except in certain matters pertaining to house decorating. In most of those cases I don’t really care anyway. (Just keep your hands off the stalactites of my man cave, er, office, OK?) And hey, it’s just paint. But paint ain’t cheap. 

Given that our house is situated at 4 feet above sea level, and assuming the highest projected rate of sea level rise, then we can conclude that water may be lapping at our doorstep somewhere around the year 2080. (This is shown graphically on the attached chart). Coincidentally, 2080 is the year that Long Beach Breakwater Study LVII is scheduled to be published. The answer can now be given to the question, “Why remodel if the yard will be under water in twenty years?” And the answer is: in twenty years the water level won’t even be close to the house, so let’s remodel so we can enjoy our house in the Shore up until we’re about 120 years old. Then we’ll buy a boat. 

Coming up: problems with the sewer line and the gas meter. Dismay ensues. 

References and Links: 

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/spms3.html 

Advancing the Science of Climate Change. The National Academies Press, 2010

http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12782&page=1 

Anderegg et al. “Expert Credibility in Climate Change.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Apr 2010

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.full.pdf 

Dyson, Freeman. “Heretical Thoughts About Science and Society.” The Third Culture Aug 2007

http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/dysonf07/dysonf07_index.html